Monday, September 22, 2014

Weekend cleanup: NFL quarterback analysis, Al Golden & voices in my head

Kirk Cousins and Nick Foles earned a lot of praise from TV network analysts and various other talking heads for their passing performance Sunday.

A quick look at the box score from Philadelphia's entertaining 37-34 win:
TL;DR Brainless Summary: Math ... who needs it? I can count wins, baby! That's all I need. *
Nick Foles: So close to perfect (if you only look at box scores)
Photo by USA Today sports
Cousins was 30 of 48 for 427 yards for three TDs, an interception and a passer rating of 103.4. Foles was 27 of 41 for 325 yards for three TDs, no interceptions and a passer rating of 114.4.

Looks impressive, with passer ratings for both quarterbacks in the triple digits. But here's the thing about single-game passer rating: It's a lot like talking about a pitcher's ERA for one game, or a basketball player's single-game shooting percentage. It sounds nice, but without context, doesn't say a whole lot and can be misleading.



For another, the rating is based on an outdated statistical model, and the NFL has explicitly pointed out for years that it's merely a passer rating, a way to evaluate passers, not quarterbacks. The rating can't account for relative strengths of an offensive line, a set of wide receivers, a defense, the ability of a running game to change a defense's strategy, or so many other areas that can play a critical role in deciding a game. In reality, passer rating usually is more indicative of an entire offense's ability than just the quarterback.

So, for those who can only rely on a stat line or a few highlights, it's easy to get the perception that both quarterbacks were exceptionally brilliant.

For those who watched the game, though, especially the second half, a different picture emerged. No doubt both QBs did throw good passes, but Cousins' numbers got a big boost from some spectacularly bad coverage and shoddy tackling by Eagles defensive backs. (Case in point: Where was the safety help on this long pass to DeSean Jackson?) Cousins also missed badly on a couple of key passes late in the game in situations when he had adequate protection and room around his target.

Foles, on the other hand, was working behind an offensive line held together by dirty duct tape and gum. Because of that, Washington could sit on any rushing attempt by LeSean McCoy, leaving Foles' passing the only viable offensive option.

Still, during the second half, I counted at least four separate times when Foles had plenty of time and plenty of open space around his receiver and missed his target by several yards, especially on throws longer than 15 yards. Again, Foles was not bad by any means, but certainly didn't have some all-time spectacular game, either.

So good he played all 11
positions at once -- for both teams.
Yet, all highlight shows and national analysts could say was how great both quarterbacks played. Quarterbacks have always taken more blame and credit than they should for a team's wins and losses (see also Tim Tebow's apparent ability to play outstanding defense and kick long field goals while playing for Denver). But with so much good analysis, camera work during games and supposedly smart people breaking down the games, it's a shame the general sports conversation continues to put a quarterback on the line for the fortunes of an entire team for a given game or, in many cases, a season.

As an example, shortly after Teddy Bridgewater made his debut with Minnesota on Sunday, he dumped off a pass in the flat behind the line of scrimmage to Matt Asiata, who turned the play into a long gain. Shortly afterward, the Vikings' Twitter account sent out this message: Teddy is making things happen.

Sigh.

Candy Canes?

With the Miami Hurricanes losing at Nebraska, as most expected, a large chunk of UM fans -- and at least a couple of former players -- predictably took to Twitter to call for either immediate improvement from Al Golden's program or a one-way trip out of South Florida for Golden.
Golden

Look, Golden's record at Miami in big games isn't great, and there's almost no satisfying some fans who'll take nothing less than a national title, which hasn't been a realistic possibility for a decade. But the Canes' record has improved in each of Golden's three seasons, the program has just recently emerged from a prolonged fight with the NCAA and there's a lot of talent on the squad, including freshman QB Brad Kaaya, who seems destined for stardom.

Will Golden guide the program back to national title contention? It's tough to say, but given what he's done under the constraints he's had, seems like he should get another season or two to show us.

Maybe more important: For those clamoring for his instant removal, who could the program realistically hire to do better? I'll hang up and listen.

College football leftovers

What was Jameis Winston thinking when he took the field for warmups Saturday in full uniform? Did he think Jimbo Fisher would change his mind about the suspension? Did the reigning Heisman Trophy winner think no would notice him or mind if he, you know, just happened to wander onto the field for a play or two? Not sure if it's an extreme sense of entitlement, naievete, stupidity, or a combination, but it's a good way to lose fans.

My Northwestern Wildcats beating Western Illinois at home was nice, but many of the same issues remain. Up next: A road game against a meh Penn State team. Cats enter as 10-point underdogs. Seems low.

The voices in my head

Kevin Harlan: Beast mode
* Tough to think of a better overall football radio play-by-play announcer than Kevin Harlan. He gives a ton of relevant information without overwhelming listeners, is a master at getting the best from whichever analyst is with him, knows when to raise the drama, and -- just as important -- knows when to tone it down a bit. Oh, and he's pretty good on TV, too.

* And then we have Thom Brennaman. The man for whom no player, no play, no coach is too ordinary to not celebrate as the best he's ever seen. The man who excels in pious proclamations of judgment at nearly every chance he gets. But as annoying as that is, that could all be overlooked if he wasn't so consistently ignorant of basic strategy.
On Sunday, with 34 seconds left in the game, the Cardinals faced 4th and 16 on the 49ers' 17-yard line with a six-point lead, Brennaman seriously questioned why Arizona would attempt a 35-yard field goal. It's the NFL. Few plays are more of a sure thing. What else would they do? Have a giant group hug around the man with the ball and hope the Niners would allow 34 seconds to run off the clock?

* Shortly after the Washington-Philadelphia rumble on the sideline, CBS' Bart Scott offered this sage wisdom: "You've got to be the second guy in there, not the first." Apparently, "can't wait" doesn't apply here.



* "Dr. Phil" Simms apparently was able to judge Demaryius Thomas' health based on his body language. Then, with Denver driving against Seattle needing a touchdown and two-point conversion to tie, Simms went on a ledge twice to tell viewers, "This is four-down territory here." Thanks, man. Should players also wear shoes during games?

* During the Packers-Lions game, analyst John Lynch proclaimed DeAndre Levy was "an emerging star in the National Football League at the linebacker position"
Why so vague? No "hard plastic pads covering the upper appendages of his human body helps prolong his football career?

* Want to know the definition of blanket coverage? Less than a minute after a hellacious thunderstorm begins, both dogs -- one of whom is not the lap dog she thinks she is -- hop up on the recliner as I watched football and tried to get in my face.

An excellent (and true) tweet from former co-worker Mike McFeely of KFGO-AM:

And finally, one of the best images we Floridian-Americans get this time of year:





* -- NOTE: Trying out a different feature, with the "too long, didn't read" Brainless Summary for anyone reading who has been brainwashed by the ESPN-ification of sports and can't handle analysis with anything deeper than "That quarterback is good because he wins." Maybe you'll enjoy it?

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